Palladium Price Forecast: Will Record-Breaking Surges Continue?

There is a lot of information to consider when analysing and forecasting any type of asset. With the price of palladium, which is affected by everything from armed conflicts to climate change, it may be even more difficult. We have searched far and wide for different opinions and expert analyses to offer you a palladium price forecast for different periods, both short-term (2022-2023) and long-term (2025-2030).

Will the price of palladium go higher over the years? Let's find out.

In Short

• The price of the precious metalpalladium has soared. 
• The pressures driving its price up are unlikely to ease anytime soon.
• Unless supply takes a huge leap to catch up with demand, a further price surge is very likely.

Palladium: Properties, Uses and Facts 

Palladium (Pd) is a soft silvery-white metal, one of the platinum group metals (PGMs) along with platinum, ruthenium, rhodium, osmium and iridium. It is dense, stable and rare. 

The majority of the world's supply comes from mines located in the Ural Mountains, Australia, North and South America and Africa. With 82,000 kilograms, Russia is the top producer, followed by South Africa, Canada and the United States. Before global sanctions on Russia, Russia's company Norilsk Nickel (currently unavailable on the stock market) was the largest palladium producer, accounting for 39% of world production.

Because finely divided palladium is a good catalyst, it is used for hydrogenation and dehydrogenation reactions. In fact, catalytic converters account for the largest use of palladium today. It is also used in: 

• Electronics, for electrical contacts, ceramic capacitors, and soldering materials
• Technology, as electrodes in electrochemical studies
• Dentistry, for dental amalgams to decrease corrosion
• Jewellery, as one of the metals used in white gold alloys and hardware plating on accessories
• Photography, for fine art black-and-white prints

What Affects the Price of Palladium? 

Major factors to track are:

• Supply and demand (specifically, the balance between the two)
• Shifts in the auto manufacturing industry
• Strength of economies in countries with high consumption (the United States, China, Japan and Germany)
• Precious metals prices (gold, silver and platinum)
• Changes in government regulations (budget decisions, foreign investment and industry procedures)
• Inflation (higher inflation = higher commodity prices)

Palladium Demand Forecast for 2022 by Sectors

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) project that in 2022, demand for palladium will increase by 449,000 ounces, further widening the deficit in supply. Automotive catalysts are likely to account for most of it. Another essential projection is the rise of the global auto catalyst market, a CAGR of 3.6%. Even without the increase, nearly 85% of palladium demand comes from the auto sector. 

Metals Focus, an independent precious metals research consultancy, expects demand to "grow by 20% y/y in 2022, boosted primarily by rising heavy-duty diesel loadings, predominantly in Asia".

The global jewellery market size is expected to expand at a CAGR of 8.5% from 2022 to 2030. Palladium fits into the 'other' segment and follows a similar dynamic as platinum, gold and diamonds.

Palladium Price Prediction for 2022 by the Experts

Capital Economics commodities economist Luke Nickels said, "It will be difficult for buyers to substitute Russian palladium with alternative sources of supply. As a result, we now expect palladium prices to remain elevated for some time".

On the same note, Macquarie analyst Marcus Garvey also believes that the market looks opportunistic. He said, "With these levels, we're bullish". According to their estimates, the price will return to $2,500 an ounce or higher.

Citigroup Inc has raised its end-Q2 forecast to $2,700 per ounce. Analyst Max Layton: "Whatever price we see in the next 12-24 months, this will be the high of the cycle". After that, the market may reach a point of stabilisation.

If you're interested in monthly dynamics, Wallet Investor has a detailed forecast for palladium in 2022.

For another perspective, look at Long Forecast and its bearish outlook. 

Technical Analysis of Palladium Price

Technical analysis utilises prior price or volume action to predict future moves. In the commodities market, the most common indicators used in assessments are:

• Moving averages: To smooth out short-term noise from long-term trends
• Oscillators: To find overbought or oversold conditions
• Volatility indicators: To see potential market reversals
• Volume indicators: To determine the strength of price movements

Bear in mind that the same signals apply to all charts and all timeframes.

Below is an example of a palladium chart with several technical indicators applied. 

An important part of analysing chart patterns is the concept of support & resistance. These levels tend to act as barriers and are considered to prevent the price from getting pushed in a certain direction. Here are technical analysis trends for palladium as of 29 March 2022:

Palladium Price Prediction for 2023

According to Wallet Investor, palladium might have a mild bullish run. The asset is likely to enter and finish the year at the relatively same price, with only a 1%-2% difference.

On a vastly different note, palladium is expected to turn its sharp bearish trend into a bullish one by the end of the year (taken from Long Forecast).

Palladium Price Prediction for 2024

Wallet Investor has a similar outlook for 2024 as the year prior: mild volatility with no significant trend.

Long Forecast continues with its bullish outlook for 2024. 

Palladium Price Forecast for 2025-2030 

According to Wallet Investor, 2025 might be where palladium breaks over $5,000.

Long Forecast doesn't see palladium going over $4,500.

Gov Capital expects the price of palladium to be $9,439.91 at the start of 2027. As for 2030, Coin Price Forecast anticipates the price to climb to $11,633-$12,215. 

Remember that long-range forecasting may not be accurate. Value predictions for such a distant future are just an approximate idea based on historical performance.

Palladium Price History for the Past 15 Years

Most commodity prices declined after the 2008 financial crisis. In that case, palladium fell below $500. Since then, the price per ounce has moved in a steady uptrend, bringing the price to $1,890.40 by August 2019.

At the start of 2020, palladium shot up to $2,627.30, which did not last. Just a few weeks later, the commodity was worth $1,539.20.

In 2021, demand for the metal in car manufacturing was hurt by global computer chip shortages. The price plummeted to roughly the same levels as at the early stages of the pandemic. To be more specific, after hitting a record high of around $3,018 an ounce in April 2021, it fell down to around $1,800 in May.

But in 2022, the price shot up over concerns of a shortage. Flight bans were the first sign of a dramatic change in the palladium market. The scale of failures is not fully understood. But as companies examine alternative routes to supply the metal to their customers, the price spike is already easing, dropping from $2,979.90 on 27 February to $2,390.40 on 20 March. 

Are Palladium Companies Stocks a Buy or a Sell Now?

Many sources expect the price of palladium to increase over the years. Take a look at the table below for a detailed projection up to 2030.

As for the companies and their stocks, it's important to make individual assessments. Here is what analysts think about the most prominent companies in the field: 

• Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (NYSE:SBSW): 7 analysts rate it as Buy, 1 puts it at Outperform and 3 say to Hold.
• Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd (ADR:OTC): The average score from 7 ratings is Outperform.
• Anglo American Platinum Ltd (OTC:ANGPY): 1 analyst says to Buy, 1 rate it as Outperform, 1 opines it will Underperform and 4 say to Sell.
• A-Mark Precious Metals Inc (NASDAQ:AMRK): 2 analysts said it's a Buy.

As you can see, ratings vary from company to company, so there is a lot of homework to do before buying. Before you consider making any of these stocks (or any other) an investment asset, gain as much experience as you can. The best way to start is by signing up for a demo account on Libertex. This way, you'll see how various markets and assets move without putting your own money and only switching to a live account when you feel ready. 

Any forward-looking statements and projections in this article do not guarantee future palladium prices. They were made by various sources and market analysts and are given for educational use only. Please do your own analysis and be aware of risks.